Summary of: What the Newest Polls Say About A Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Matchup published on Newsweek, May 11, 2020.
Recent polls show Biden is the frontrunner for the 2020 election, but sexual assault allegations brought by Tara Reade could cause Biden’s fallout
Trump’s record of boosting the economy is what Americans look to him the most for, and could be the reason he wins a second term
A recent poll analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten shows that Biden has been ahead of Trump by a range of 3 to 9 points since the beginning of 2019 and suggests that this will likely continue to be the case. According to Enten, "the steadiness in the polls is record breaking. Biden's advantage is the steadiest in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944.”
Here are some polling results:
YouGov poll (May 3 to 5) – Biden 46% Trump 42%
CNBC survey (May 1 to 3) – Biden 47% Trump 44%
Monmouth poll (April 30 to May 4) – Biden 50% Trump 41%
IBD/TIPP poll – Biden 43% Trump 43%
However, Morning Consult suggests that the sexual assault allegations brought by Tara Reade will negatively impact Biden’s polling results. According to the company’s data, more than a quarter of Democratic voters think Biden should be removed as the party's nominee because of Reade's allegations and 26 percent of the voters believe the Democratic party should select another nominee.
Biden also has a significant lead in Arizona, which has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election after 1996. Polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics show Biden ahead of Trump by a few points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania. These are states that voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then went for Trump in 2016.
Leads in national polls do not necessarily mean that Biden is set to win the election. After all, this is something that Democrats realized in 2016 when Trump won the presidency over Hillary Clinton despite her 3 million individual vote lead.
According to Ken Farnaso, the Trump re-election campaign deputy press secretary, President Trump’s record of boosting the American economy will help him the most in the upcoming election. “Americans will look to him and his proven success to restore the economy to greatness. On the other hand, Joe Biden would raise taxes and burden job creators with strangling regulations under the Green New Deal.” And as shown by the IBD/TIPP poll, market investors are showing their true colors that they believe Trump could be re-elected.
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