Trump Still Has A Chance, Despite Recent Polls
By Claudia Smajlaj | DCI
“Trump can absolutely win reelection, but he definitely has his work cut out for him. So, Trump needs to make a comeback. Again, there's plenty of time for that and maybe also get some help from the electoral college.”
The numerous challenges of 2020 – from the struggles that came with the Covid-19 pandemic to the protests against racial injustice and police brutality – have hit Trump hard. Though he’s been an unfavorable president for many once he stepped foot in office, he has definitely lost the support of some of his followers after poorly handling the events of 2020 and failed to consistently show leadership. This came to Trump’s realization after his recent rally in Tulsa, which failed to have a good turnout.
However, it is still possible that Trump could have a surprise victory – that is, if the U.S. economy rebounds. After all, the main thing that kept voters on Trump’s side was how well he improved the U.S. economy by bringing jobs.
As Republican pollster Chris Wilson put it, “If we have an economy in which unemployment goes back down to 5% or below, if we have a Dow that is above 40,000 … I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the craziness and give him credit for what will be seen as a pretty remarkable if not historic turnaround.”
FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver debuted his national polling average on ABC News’ Sunday program “This Week,” which showed Biden having a 9-point advantage over Trump. However, as we all saw in the 2016 election, Silver said that national polling “doesn’t really matter” since Trump ended up beating Hillary. Remember that Clinton had a 7-point lead over Trump at this point in the race back in 2016, and when Trump won the presidency, she had roughly 3 million more popular votes.
At the end of the day, the candidate must win the electoral college in order to become president.
Although Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over Trump continues to widen, Silver said “Trump can absolutely win reelection, but he definitely has his work cut out for him. So, Trump needs to make a comeback. Again, there's plenty of time for that and maybe also get some help from the electoral college.”
Silver then looked at the electoral map, where he said Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Arizona. “So for the time being,” Silver continued, “no, I don't buy that we're going to have the exact same map as we did in 2016. Instead, Trump is fighting a two-front war with problems in the Midwest on one hand and Arizona and Florida on the other hand."
Nate Silver has talked about Trump losing since 2016. So, for him to say this speaks volumes.
Claudia Smajlaj is a rising sophomore at American University who is studying Finance in the Kogod School of Business. Claudia currently works at the Center for Business Communications (CBC) and is an on-staff writer for the DC Intervention.